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What We Do Not Know
Published 4 October 2026
A history written while the events are still happening has one honest ending, which is a list of what is not yet known. These are the open items in the record as of the freeze on 3 October, each with the reason it is open.
The war itself
- Whether it ends, and how. The ceasefire of 8 April, the memorandum of 17 June and the deadline of 17 August each produced a different story and none produced a settlement. The seven-day plan of 25 September has no official answer on record.
- Whether the June memorandum is still in force in any sense. Its 60-day period expired on 17 August, according to the IAEA's September report, and the interim deal was still being argued over on 1 September.
- The scale of attacks on shipping since August. One anonymous Western official's estimate of roughly 30 drone and 10 anti-ship missile attacks a week is the only aggregate in the record. It is attributed and unverified.
The nuclear question
- The present size and location of the stockpile. The last verified figure for uranium enriched up to 60 percent is dated 13 June 2025. The agency says it cannot verify the current stock.
- Whether inspectors returned. Iran confirmed access for planned mid-September Bushehr visits. No source in this record shows they took place.
- The status of the Isfahan enrichment facility. The agency lists its location and status as unknown.
The human cost
- A total for Iran. Iranian authorities put deaths above 3,400, per a UN official on 29 September. An independent group's April snapshot sums to 3,636. These are different counts with different methods and they are not added.
- A total for Israel and the Gulf. The primary figures in the record are dated April, and no safe October cumulative exists.
- Yemen. Two UN-linked figures, 831 and 838 deaths, remain unresolved and this file does not pick one.
- The wedding strike. Weapons experts think a US munition likely. The Pentagon's investigation has not reported, and the casualty numbers are Iranian official figures.
- Who attacked the Cape Dao. No one has claimed it, and the IMO table does not name an attacker.
The money
- Whether the 100 million barrels is new. The G7 text speaks of implementing commitments "taking into account" those already fulfilled, and the split between crude and diesel is unstated.
- Whether Qatar's undamaged trains returned to full output. The readiness claim of June and the "very little LNG" statement of September point in different directions, and the damaged trains need years.
- The oil price on the day you read this. The latest futures close in the charts is for 1 October, and the EIA spot series does not extend into October.
India
- The real Indian seafarer toll. The government figure on 27 March was seven dead and one missing. A newspaper's 13 dead and three missing by July is unreconciled.
- Chabahar. The waiver lapsed, talks were said to be under way, and nothing in the record shows a new licence.
- Whether September's Gulf recovery in Indian imports holds. Two readings of the same data source, five days apart, disagree about the size of it.
Why a list
None of these items is exotic, and each could be resolved by a single document that has not yet been published. A reader who comes back in a month should look first at this chapter, because it is the part of this file most likely to be wrong by then.
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