A bill, a poll and a fighter jet

Published 8 October 2026

In the same week Americans were telling pollsters something about the island too. The Chicago Council's latest survey, released September 21, found that support for using American troops if China invaded Taiwan had fallen to 38 percent, down from a peak of 52 percent in 2021. The previous year's survey, fielded July 18 to 30, 2025 among 2,148 adults with a margin of error of 2.2 points, had put it at 43 percent, up from 36 percent in 2024, and found 51 percent opposed. In that 2025 survey, 63 percent favored sending arms, 71 percent sanctions on China, 77 percent food and medical aid, and Americans split 47 to 47 on using the Navy to break a blockade. Support for aid short of troops is wide. Support for troops rises and falls with the news.

Congress sends its own signals. The Senate passed S. 1744, the PORCUPINE Act (Providing Our Regional Companions Upgraded Protection in Nefarious Environments), on December 11, 2025. It would add Taiwan to the list of recipients that get shorter certification and reporting periods under the Arms Export Control Act and would expedite licensing for allies transferring military equipment to Taiwan. A House companion, H.R. 7146, was introduced on January 16, 2026 under the same name. Introduction is not passage. Congress.gov's action record lists Senate passage on December 11, 2025 and receipt in the House on December 15, where it was held at the desk. It does not list enactment in the record checked for this refresh. It speaks to a quiet problem. Arms that Congress approves and the White House announces still take years to arrive, and the first two F-16V jets, ordered in 2019, arrived on Friday, October 2, 2026.

Then, on Thursday, October 1, came the Reuters story. American officials, speaking anonymously, told Reuters they regarded a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as increasingly unlikely, despite the 2027 readiness timeline. One official put the risk after that this way: "If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty." The same official described an amphibious assault as "the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy." Reuters notes that Beijing never publicly confirmed a 2027 order. The sources are anonymous officials, so this is a reported assessment, not an official position.

The same day, the Taiwan coast guard used water cannon on a Chinese fishing boat, the Jin Sha, 27 nautical miles east of Pratas. On Friday, October 2, the first two of 66 F-16V Block 70 fighters arrived at Chihhang Air Base, ordered in 2019 for $8 billion. Defense Minister Wellington Koo said: "China's intention to annex Taiwan by force has never changed." The October 7 tally counted 14 aircraft sorties, seven navy ships and one official ship. Those are sorties, not necessarily 14 distinct aircraft, and detections, not a declaration that an attack has begun.

The pressure was not confined to aircraft. An October 5 Justice Department release announced the arrest of Wanying Zhang, also known as Heather Zhang, on a one-count complaint alleging that she acted as an unregistered Chinese government agent and surveilled relatives of a high-ranking Taiwanese official. The department described allegations concerning activity from June to September 2025 and said the complaint was an allegation, with innocence presumed unless guilt is proved in court. A Taipei Times report published on October 6 described the same case. The paper identified the target as Lai's son in its account of the authorities' allegations. An arrest and an accusation are not a conviction, and Beijing's responsibility in this case is an allegation reported from American officials, not a fact established here by a completed trial. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council minister, Chiu Chui-cheng, said the government was drafting changes to the Anti-Infiltration Act and related laws and preparing guidance for Taiwanese facing transnational repression. He argued that Taiwan's legal framework did not adequately cover some conduct involving local collaborators following people or collecting information for a foreign government. That was a proposed legal response. The report does not establish that the amendments had become law.

The distinction between proposal and enactment matters as much here as it does in a defense budget. A minister can identify a gap, a council can draft a response and a legislature can still leave the draft waiting. The reported case widened the public argument about coercion beyond officials on the island to families overseas. Chiu's call for coordination among democratic countries followed from that reach: a surveillance allegation in the United States cannot be answered solely by changing a statute in Taipei. Military patrols, criminal cases and legislation operate on different clocks. Treating them as one undifferentiated threat makes it harder to see which institution can actually respond.