What to watch
Published 8 October 2026
At the October 7, 2026 reporting cutoff, these were the scheduled dates and unresolved decisions to watch. A date on the calendar is not proof that a meeting, vote or military response will happen as expected. The first is the one the island itself marks. October 10, 2026, a Saturday, is Taiwan's National Day, with Lai's address a scheduled political marker rather than evidence of what Beijing will do afterward. After his 2024 speech, Beijing held Joint Sword-2024B within days. The run-up through October 7 was uneven. On Tuesday, October 6 the defense ministry said that from 2:54pm it detected 14 Chinese aircraft, nine of which crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into northern and central airspace alongside Chinese ships, in what it labeled a "so-called joint combat readiness patrol," per CNA. The ministry's overnight report for the 24 hours to 6am that day logged no aircraft, only eight naval and eight official ships, per its daily report.
The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting was scheduled in Shenzhen from Wednesday, November 18 to Thursday, November 19, 2026, according to the Shenzhen municipal APEC site and a Xinhua item of December 12, 2025 (source). The G20 Leaders' Summit was scheduled in Miami on Monday, December 14 and Tuesday, December 15, 2026, with the fourth Sherpa meeting December 10 to 12, per the G20 events calendar, here. Trump said he and Xi intended to attend both. CSIS's Mazzocco calls official confirmation of the trips "a major outcome" for cynics and says any larger deal "will only be announced later in the year," and Asia Society counts four presidential meetings in 2026 if both happen per its piece. A footnote on the guest list: on Monday, September 21 Bloomberg, via the Kyiv Post, reported that Putin plans to attend APEC for the first time since 2017 but is "unlikely" to join the G20, from people close to the Kremlin. That bears on who is in Shenzhen, not on Taiwan.
The September 2026 extension sets the trade truce's end for Sunday, January 10, 2027. The first AI dialogue exchange was scheduled "by November 2026" in the summit account. American midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 per Brookings. Taiwan's legislature opened its new session on Tuesday, September 29, when Premier Cho Jung-tai gave his policy report and asked lawmakers to finish the 2027 budget (Vision Times); Kuomintang and People's Party legislators boycotted the report, according to World Journal. The People's Party's motion to condemn Cho for refusing to countersign passed bills was fast-tracked on August 21 (CNA); the August 21 procedural vote sent the symbolic condemnation motion to second reading, and the reports cited here establish that procedural stage, not a later final vote. No final disposition is confirmed by the cited reports.
The Central Election Commission announced on August 20 that 11,051 officials will be chosen in the nine-in-one elections, with about 19.65 million eligible voters, about 600,000 of them first-time voters, 8,906 electoral districts and 18,244 polling stations. The candidate-list confirmation date was Friday, October 16, 2026, per the National Bureau of Asian Research. Registration ran from August 31 to September 4 per CNA. Four of Taiwan's five directly elected presidents, including Lai, were mayors of a major city before the presidency, and three were Taipei mayors. The Kuomintang holds 14 of 22 local executive offices and held 15 in the previous cycle, yet has lost the last three presidential contests. Local races "tend to focus on economic management and day-to-day governance," while presidential ones center on security and cross-strait ties. Party chairs often resign after local setbacks, and this is the first big test for Kuomintang Chair Cheng Li-wun and for Lai ahead of the 2028 nomination fight, per the Bureau. A Diplomat piece argues the contest is not about China, Lai or the United States.
In Taipei, Kuomintang incumbent Chiang Wan-an faces Democratic Progressive Party legislator Puma Shen (Shen Po-yang), plus Kuo Hsi of the Taiwan Mahjong Greatest Party, Tang Hsin-min, Hsiao Wen-chien and independent Lin Chih-cheng per CNA. A poll reported on Wednesday, September 23 had Chiang at 41.7 percent and Shen at 40.5, with 5.2 percent saying they would not vote or would cast an invalid ballot and 10.6 percent giving no answer. People 50 and older favored Chiang and those 20 to 49 favored Shen. Of the Kuomintang's supporters 96.1 percent and of the People's Party's 88.5 percent back Chiang, and 89.4 percent of Democratic Progressive Party supporters back Shen. Among unaffiliated voters Chiang led 31.7 to 25.9, with 27.4 percent undecided. The poll was commissioned by the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association, designed and analysed by the polling expert Tai Li-an, and run by Beacon Market Research from Wednesday, September 16 to Friday, September 18. It reached 1,076 adults aged 20 or older, 752 by landline and 324 by mobile phone, with a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points, so the 1.2-point gap between Chiang and Shen is inside the margin and the poll shows no clear leader. Chiang said "any numbers are merely for reference." Shen defended Tai's credibility and answered critics who pointed to the association's alleged ties to the United Microelectronics founder Robert Tsao, who had donated to Kuma Academy, which Shen founded, and worked with Shen on the 2025 recall campaign, that anyone doubting a poll should "present scientific evidence" (Taipei Times, Sept 23, 2026). The Bureau says polling "generally" had Chiang ahead with one poll showing a tighter race.
New Taipei is an open seat because Mayor Hou Yu-ih is term-limited. Democratic Progressive Party legislator Su Chiao-hui faces the Kuomintang's Lee Shu-chuan, a former Taipei deputy mayor, and independent Su Hui-huang. The Bureau says polling suggests a tight race with Su "maintaining a modest lead," and that People's Party chair Huang Kuo-chang stood aside "in the name of the two parties' partnership." CNA reported on October 3 that Su pledged an international sports and cultural center on the Taipei Detention Center site, and Lee pledged a metro line across the Dahan River and a light rail line linking Linkou, Bali and Tamsui. In Taoyuan, Kuomintang incumbent Chang San-cheng faces the Democratic Progressive Party's Huang Shih-chieh, a former deputy justice minister. Taichung is an open seat because Lu Shiow-yen is term-limited: the Kuomintang's Johnny Chiang, the deputy legislative speaker, faces Democratic Progressive Party legislator Ho Hsin-chun, plus minor and independent names. The Bureau says it leans Kuomintang and that the result may affect Lu's standing in the party's presidential nomination. Johnny Chiang is also the Chiang Chi-chen who was one of the seven legislators in the August 23, 2025 recall, with 67.26 percent voting no, and he is called Johnny Chiang in the source.
In Tainan, the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Ting-fei faces the Kuomintang's Hsieh Lung-chieh, who has lost to her five times and got about 43 percent in 2022. The Bureau describes her lead as "modest" in the March polls and a Hsieh win as "a significant upset." Kaohsiung is an open seat, with Chen Chi-mai outgoing: Democratic Progressive Party legislator Lai Jui-lung faces Kuomintang legislator Ko Chih-en, a race the Bureau says "appears likely to favor the DPP" but is narrowing. On Saturday, October 3 Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim endorsed Lai, and Ko Chih-en canvassed with People's Party founder Ko Wen-je, who called the Kuomintang's Kaohsiung strategy "vapid" and "overly defensive." In Hsinchu City, independent incumbent Kao Hung-an faces the Democratic Progressive Party's Chuang Ching-cheng and independent Ho Chih-yung, a former Kuomintang spokesperson. In Keelung, Kuomintang incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang faces the Democratic Progressive Party's Tung Tzu-wei and independent Wei Tsao-wen.
The National Bureau of Asian Research says the elections offer "an important window into Taiwan's political landscape, but not necessarily a straightforward forecast of national politics in 2028," and that many incumbents "appear well positioned." Compare 2014, when the Democratic Progressive Party won 13 of 22 cities and counties and the Kuomintang's fall from 15 to 6 was read as a verdict on the Sunflower year. In 2026 the Kuomintang holds 14 of 22, so the baseline is different. The opposition has had its legislative standoff with the Cabinet all year, and the Bureau agrees with the Diplomat that local races turn on local governance.