Price floors and an October bargain
Published 13 October 2026
While Beijing's licences were queuing up, the U.S. Department of Defense took a stake in a rare earth company. The announcement said the Department of Defense was positioned to become the company's largest shareholder. On July 10, 2025, MP Materials announced a public-private partnership with the Department of Defense. The Defense Department entered into a 10-year agreement establishing a price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products stockpiled or sold, and agreed to ensure that defence and commercial customers purchase 100% of the magnets produced at the planned 10X facility for 10 years following construction. Commissioning was expected to begin in 2028, taking MP's total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to an estimated 10,000 metric tons. It also took $400 million in convertible preferred stock at $30.03 a share, with that stock and an accompanying warrant representing roughly 15% on an as-converted and as-exercised basis, and made a $150 million loan, alongside a $1.0 billion commitment letter from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. re078, MP Materials, Public-private partnership with the Department of War, July 2025
The Molycorp record shows why geology alone was not enough. Falling market prices could undermine a new plant before it recovered its costs. A guaranteed floor reduces exposure to a price fall for the covered producer under the agreement. re030, Mining.com, Mountain Pass sells for $20.5 million re078, MP Materials, Public-private partnership with the Department of War, July 2025
Apple is a customer. On July 15, 2025, MP and Apple announced a $500 million partnership under which MP will supply Apple with magnets made in Fort Worth, Texas from recycled rare earth feedstock processed at Mountain Pass, California. The feedstock will come from post-industrial and end-of-life magnets. The release says the two companies had been piloting the recycling technology "for nearly five years," and that MP will build a dedicated commercial-scale recycling line at Mountain Pass. re126, MP Materials, MP Materials and Apple announce $500 million partnership to produce recycled rare earth magnets
The market response to the Apple news was immediate. Reuters wrote that MP's shares "surge" to end the day up 20 percent and had "nearly doubled" since the government deal announced the week before, and quoted Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies saying "executives are willing to pay a significant premium for a reliable supply chain." Another analyst said the deal "does help position Apple more positively in Washington." Those are the analysts' judgments about motive, not facts about the contract. The facts in the same report are the $200 million prepayment, the 2027 start of deliveries and the fact that the companies disclosed neither length nor volumes. re099, Reuters, Apple in $500 million rare earth magnet deal with MP to expand US supply chain
At home the state tightened too. On July 18, 2025, Reuters reported that China had quietly issued its first 2025 rare earth mining and smelting quotas without the usual public statement. Sources said the companies were told not to share the numbers for security reasons. Reuters noted that only two state-owned groups had been eligible for quotas the year before, down from six previously. re042, Reuters, China quietly issues 2025 rare earth quotas, sources say
Then the numbers turned. Reuters reported on July 20, 2025 that exports of rare earth magnets to the United States in June had soared to 353 tonnes, up 660% from May, after pacts reached in June to resolve issues around shipments of rare earth minerals and magnets to the United States. Total magnet exports in June were 3,188 tonnes, up 157.5% from May, but still 38.1% below June 2024. For the first half of 2025, exports fell 18.9% on the year, to 22,319 tonnes. Those percentages describe a freeze and a thaw. re065, Reuters, China's rare earth magnet exports to US surge in June re064, Reuters, China's rare earth magnet shipments halve in May due to export curbs
Two more rounds followed. The later joint statement lists meetings in London on June 9 and 10, 2025, and in Stockholm on July 28 and 29, 2025. Reuters reported from Stockholm on July 29 that U.S. and Chinese officials had agreed to seek an extension of the 90-day tariff truce, which was set to expire on August 12, after two days of talks that both sides described as constructive. "No major breakthroughs were announced," the agency wrote, and U.S. officials said it was up to President Trump whether to extend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the agreements on the flow of Chinese rare earths were becoming more refined after previous talks in Geneva and London. That sentence is Mr Bessent's description, and no text of such agreements has been published in the documents cited here. re076, Reuters, US, China tariff truce holds for now but US says Trump has final say re077, White House, Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Stockholm
The extension, when it came, was again narrow. The White House joint statement on Stockholm says that the United States will continue to suspend 24 percentage points of the additional duty "for an additional period of 90 days, starting on August 12, 2025," and that China will do the same and "adopt or maintain all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States as agreed in the Geneva Joint Statement." Its words about rare earths are the same as in Geneva: none. The only signed texts among the documents cited here are about tariff percentages and an unspecified class of "non-tariff countermeasures." Whether the April 4 rare earth licensing counts as one of them is not answered in those texts, and the CNBC report of May 15 describes China as continuing the restrictions. re077, White House, Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Stockholm re074, White House, Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva re075, CNBC, China keeps rare earth exports control for United States re060, MOFCOM, Announcement No. 18 of 2025
On August 22, 2025, Reuters reported that China had issued measures to regulate the mining, smelting and separation of rare earths, and that the new rules would include imported raw materials in the quota system, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said. Analysts said the inclusion of imported ore signals a further tightening of supply. Companies that rely on imported feedstock had opposed the proposal during a public consultation that began in February. re043, Reuters, China tightens grip over rare earth supply quotas
The magnet end of the chain got its first European plant that autumn. On September 22, 2025, Neo Performance Materials announced the opening of a magnet factory in Narva, Estonia. In its release the company quoted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the facility was "Operational since May and formally inaugurated yesterday," which places the ceremony on September 21 by that account. Commission Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto said the Narva plant "will satisfy up to 15% of the EU's demand for these magnets." The company said the plant, co-funded by the EU's Just Transition Fund, was projected to produce 2,000 tonnes a year of magnets in a first phase, with plans to scale beyond 5,000 tonnes a year in a second, that it had been "completed in 500 days," and that it had secured contracts for traction motor magnets. It had also extended a memorandum of understanding with Bosch on September 19 that "reserves annual magnet production capacity" for the German supplier. Attendees also toured Neo's existing rare earth separation facility in Sillamäe and could view the new Heavy Rare Earth Separation Unit, "currently being installed." re057, Neo Performance Materials, Neo opens state-of-the-art permanent magnet facility in Europe
The 15% share is an official's statement about eventual capacity, while Neo's 2,000- and 5,000-tonne figures are projections. The financing models differ: Iluka's extra public loan depended on offtake, Neo received EU co-funding, and Solvay's cited spending was corporate money. re057, Neo Performance Materials, Neo opens state-of-the-art permanent magnet facility in Europe re055, Reuters, Australia grants further $257 mln for Iluka's rare earths refinery amid cost blowout re056, Reuters, Solvay launches rare earth processing expansion amid China restrictions
On October 9, 2025, China announced a wider package of rare-earth export controls. The Notice 61 translation published by Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology says the notice requires Chinese and foreign exporters to obtain Chinese government approval to export dual-use items containing certain Chinese-origin rare earths, and applies to goods manufactured outside China. Its own summary says this was one of several new controls announced that day, so its detailed terms must not be treated as the complete package. re084, Georgetown CSET, Ministry of Commerce Notice 2025 No. 61 (translation)
Under Announcement 61, the value test applies to specified listed items manufactured outside China that contain, integrate or have mixed into them specified Chinese-origin rare earths: those rare earths must comprise 0.1% or more of the value of the item. The denominator is the item's value, not its weight, and the boundary includes exactly 0.1%. A separate route covers listed items that use Chinese-origin rare earths and are produced abroad with technology related to extraction, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic-material manufacturing or secondary-resource recycling. Another route covers listed items originally produced in China. CSET's translation also says, in principle, permits will not be granted for items destined for foreign military users or specified controlled users and users of concern, including subsidiaries or branches where the parent controls 50% or more of shares. re084, Georgetown CSET, Ministry of Commerce Notice 2025 No. 61 (translation)
Reuters, in a piece published the next day, noted that China produces over 90% of the world's processed rare earths and magnets. Reuters wrote that rare earth magnet makers must now get approval if their goods contain more than trace amounts of Chinese rare earths, while a washing machine made in Germany with a Chinese rare earth magnet does not need permission from the Ministry of Commerce to be sold in other European countries. re085, Reuters, How China's new rare earth export controls work
President Trump's reply came on the Friday. On Truth Social he wrote that "there is no way that" China "should be allowed to hold the World 'captive'," that "One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs," and he threatened to cancel the upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping. re086, CNBC, Trump threatens China imports tariff hike over rare earths
On October 20, 2025, Washington signed a different kind of document, with an ally and for the supply side. It is useful because it is explicit about the tools: financing, stockpiles, permitting and a price floor. re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals
On October 20, 2025, President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed the "United States-Australia Framework For Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths." The text, as published on the White House site, says the two governments "plan to accomplish this through use of economic policy tools and coordinated investment to accelerate development of diversified, liquid, fair markets for critical minerals and rare earths," and that they intend "to capitalize on their respective existing domestic mining and processing operations in critical minerals and heavy and light rare earths as well as new capacity to be made available in 2026." re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals
It sets out four working areas. On supply, the participants are "intensifying their cooperative efforts," including by "leveraging existing policy tools such as the United States' industrial demand and stockpiling infrastructure and Australia's Critical Mineral Strategic Reserve." On investment, they will mobilise government and private support through "guarantees, loans, or equity; finalization of offtake arrangements; insurance; or regulatory facilitation," and, "within 6 months of the date of this Framework," take measures to provide "at least $1 billion in financing to projects located in each of the United States and Australia." They will convene a ministerial on mining investment "within 180 days." On permitting, they are "taking measures to accelerate, streamline, or deregulate permitting timelines and processes." On price, they "will work to protect their respective domestic critical minerals and rare earths markets from non-market policies and unfair trade practices," including through "standards-based systems in which those who adopt the standards can trade freely and within a pricing framework including price floors or similar measures." re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals
The market read the document through its money. Reuters reported from Sydney on October 21 that under the deal the countries pledged to invest at least $1 billion each over the next six months in mining and processing projects and to set a price floor for critical minerals, and that the U.S. Export-Import Bank said it had sent seven Letters of Interest totalling more than $2.2 billion to advance U.S.-aligned critical minerals projects in Australia. The recipients named were Arafura Rare Earths, Northern Minerals, Graphinex, Latrobe Magnesium, VHM, RZ Resources and Sunrise Energy Metals. Shares of Arafura were up 8 percent in morning trading, while shares of Northern Minerals, Latrobe Magnesium and VHM jumped 11, 15 and 20 percent respectively, compared with a broader market gain of 0.7 percent. The agency noted that Sunrise was trading lower. The text of the framework likewise sets out intentions, with six-month and 180-day deadlines among them, and says the Framework sets out a policy and programmatic action plan that does not constitute or create rights. Those deadlines fell in April 2026, and the reports cited here do not say whether the one-billion-dollar financing commitments or the ministerial were met. re081, Reuters, US, Australia to invest $2 billion in critical minerals, advance Alcoa gallium project re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals
The framework announcement also covered gallium, which links to the December 2024 ban described in the earlier control measures. Reuters said that the governments would help advance a plan by Alcoa to build a gallium plant alongside its alumina refinery in Western Australia "that could provide up to 10% of global gallium supply." Gallium is "recovered as a byproduct during the alumina refining process," Reuters wrote in a corrected paragraph. Australia said it would provide up to 200 million dollars in concessional equity financing for the project, with offtake rights for the Australian government, while the United States would also make an equity investment with offtake rights. Alcoa had signed a joint development agreement in August with Japan Australia Gallium Associates, a venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, and an entity owned by the U.S. and Australian governments and Alcoa was expected to enter a joint venture to build the plant, once feasibility work was finished. re081, Reuters, US, Australia to invest $2 billion in critical minerals, advance Alcoa gallium project re044, Reuters, China suspends ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US re045, IEA, Executive summary - Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025
Set beside the 2010 and 2012 chapters, the framework marks a shift in what governments say out loud. In 2012 the main instrument was a case at the WTO. By October 2025 the instruments included price floors, state equity and offtake, a combination similar to the one the Defense Department had applied to MP Materials in July. re024, WTO, China - Rare Earths (DS431 dispute summary) re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals re078, MP Materials, Public-private partnership with the Department of War, July 2025
Six days after the Australian framework, Washington signed a second critical minerals paper, this time with Malaysia. It shows how little a memorandum can promise. re082, White House, Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Malaysia on critical minerals re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals
On October 26, 2025, the United States and Malaysia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation to diversify global critical minerals supply chains and promote investments. The text, published by the White House, is built from verbs of intention. The participants "intend to share relevant information, knowledge, and technical expertise." They "will work in good faith to prioritize investment from the United States in critical minerals assets that may be sold in Malaysia or by a company headquartered or incorporated in Malaysia." Working-level meetings are planned "on a quarterly basis," and each side "intends to determine independently if a project discussed during the quarterly meeting is suitable for further engagement." On price, the memorandum uses language close to the Australian text: the two will coordinate "to protect their respective domestic critical minerals and rare earths markets from non-market policies and unfair trade practices," through marketplaces "protected by a pricing framework that includes price floors or similar measures." re082, White House, Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Malaysia on critical minerals
The closing clauses limit what it means. All cooperation "is subject to the availability of funds," the document "does not represent an obligation of funds," and it "is not intended to be legally binding." Either side "may discontinue cooperation under this Memorandum of Understanding at any time" by diplomatic note. re082, White House, Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Malaysia on critical minerals
Reuters reported a separate commitment in the joint statement on trade that accompanied it: "the Southeast Asian country agreed to refrain from banning or imposing quotas on exports of critical minerals or rare earth elements to the United States." The same report says that this did not change Malaysian policy on raw material. On October 29, 2025, Reuters reported that Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz, speaking in parliament, said Malaysia "will maintain a ban on the export of raw rare earths to protect its domestic resources, despite signing a critical minerals deal with the United States this week." He said: "We no longer want to be a country that only digs and ships out cheap raw materials like in the past," and: "Our policy is not to prevent trade forever." "Our policy is to prevent the export of cheap unprocessed raw materials so that value is added to Malaysia." re083, Reuters, Malaysia's ban on raw rare earths exports remains despite U.S. deal, trade minister says
Reuters added two further facts: a government estimate of Malaysia's deposits and a report of talks with China on processing. Malaysia has "some 16.1 million metric tons of rare earth deposits, according to government estimates, but lacks the technology to mine and process them." Reuters reported earlier in October that Malaysia was in talks with China on rare earths processing, saying the sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional would partner with a Chinese firm to build a refinery in Malaysia. The 16.1 million tonne figure is a government estimate of deposits, as Reuters described it. re083, Reuters, Malaysia's ban on raw rare earths exports remains despite U.S. deal, trade minister says
Put side by side, the two October documents differ. The Australian framework came with money attached, including export-bank letters of interest. The Malaysian memorandum came with a promise of talks and a minister saying the door to raw ore stays shut. The country that hosts the Lynas processing plant was telling Washington that it wanted processing done at home. re080, White House, United States-Australia framework for securing supply in mining and processing of critical minerals re081, Reuters, US, Australia to invest $2 billion in critical minerals, advance Alcoa gallium project re082, White House, Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Malaysia on critical minerals re083, Reuters, Malaysia's ban on raw rare earths exports remains despite U.S. deal, trade minister says re022, BBC, Lynas learns fate for Malaysia rare earth refinery
In the last week of October 2025, Trump and Xi met in the Republic of Korea. A White House fact sheet dated November 1 laid out the US version. China would suspend the global implementation of the controls it announced on October 9 and issue general licences for exports of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite. The US would lower the fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports by removing 10 percentage points, effective November 10, 2025. The White House fact sheet said the United States would maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026. That tariff date does not by itself establish the expiry of every rare-earth measure or general licence. re061, White House, Fact sheet on the November 2025 US-China trade deal
On October 30, 2025, The Indian Express reported that as many as four Indian companies, including DE Diamond, Hitachi and Continental India, were learnt to have bagged conditional permits to import Chinese rare earth magnets, the first set of clearances since Beijing imposed tight controls in April. The clearances were learnt to be "subject to export controls and myriad other conditions," and the permissions were conditional and not for all applications, industry sources indicated. The Indian Express linked this to the controls said to be on pause for a year as part of the trade deal reached at the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea. re105, Indian Express, Indian companies bag first set of licenses for Chinese RE magnet imports amid signs of Beijing