Winter money and new restrictions
Published 13 October 2026
On November 3, 2025, Vulcan Elements announced a $1.4 billion partnership with the US government and ReElement Technologies. Vulcan would build a 10,000 tonne magnet facility. Its expansion would be financed by a $620 million direct loan from the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital, $50 million of federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act and $550 million of private capital. ReElement, which focuses on recycling end-of-life magnets and electronic waste, gets its own financing; the release says an $80 million Direct Loan. The full Vulcan release identifies that as a separate direct loan from the Office of Strategic Capital, matched by private capital. re130, Vulcan Elements, $1.4 billion partnership with the US government and ReElement Technologies
The Vulcan arithmetic differs by source without being wrong. Reuters lists a $620 million Pentagon loan to Vulcan plus an $80 million loan to ReElement, while Commerce describes a $700 million conditional loan commitment to both companies, and a further $50 million of CHIPS money for Vulcan and $550 million in private capital. The announcements use different groupings and instruments. The combined commitment must not be counted again on top of the individual loans, and the equity and private funding remain separate counters. re100, Reuters, US, Vulcan Elements ink deal to boost rare earth magnet supplies re098, NIST, Department of Commerce Announces CHIPS Incentives Letter of Intent with Vulcan Elements to re130, Vulcan Elements, $1.4 billion partnership with the US government and ReElement Technologies
On November 7, 2025, Reuters cited industry sources saying China's commerce ministry had told some exporters they could apply for new streamlined permits and had outlined the documents required. The permits would be valid for a year. They were unlikely to be available for some sectors, such as defence. And there was "no sign yet" that the restrictions introduced in April would be removed. The White House had said on Saturday, November 1 that China had agreed to introduce general licences, and characterised them as the de facto end of China's rare earth export controls. re073, Reuters, Exclusive: China starts work on easing rare earth export rules but short of Trump hopes, sources say
On November 9, 2025, Reuters reported that China had suspended a ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the U.S., its commerce ministry said. The three metals remained subject to broader export controls requiring shippers to first get licences from Beijing. Reuters described the suspension as the latest relaxation of China's mineral export control regime, following the meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea. re044, Reuters, China suspends ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US
On November 19, 2025, MP Materials announced it had partnered with the U.S. Department of War to establish a strategic joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company, Maaden, to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. MP's chief executive James Litinsky said "the pieces are in place to fundamentally strengthen and diversify the supply chain." The refinery would process feedstock from Saudi Arabia and other regions. re087, MP Materials, Partnership with the U.S. Department of War and the Saudi Arabian Mining Company
On 26 November 2025, the Indian government approved a scheme for Rare Earth Permanent Magnets with a financial outlay of Rs 7,280 crore and 6,000 tonnes a year of integrated sintered magnet capacity. The PIB explainer describes capacity distributed among up to five beneficiaries through global competitive bidding. The timeline is a two-year gestation period for setup, followed by five years of incentive disbursement linked to production. The scheme allows two years for setup, followed by five years of incentive disbursement. re106, PIB, India's rare earth strategy: manufacturing, corridors and global integration, February 2026
The research group ISP-Myanmar, in a tracker published November 27, 2025, put rare earth exports from Myanmar to China in the first nine months of 2025 at USD 624 million, over 28,000 tonnes. That was a decline of roughly USD 100 million and more than 10,000 tonnes from the same period of 2024. It reported that in late October 2025 Beijing reopened four China-Myanmar border gates under KIA control "without any compromise with the KIA," at a time when exports were falling. China imported more than 52,000 tonnes of rare earths in the period, of which 53% came from Myanmar. ISP's summary said that per 2024 rare earth production records, China stands at the top with 61 percent, followed by Myanmar. re050, ISP Myanmar, Myanmar Exported USD 620M Worth of Rare Earths to China in 2025
On December 2, 2025, Reuters reported, citing a source, that China had issued the first batch of new rare earth export licences, with three firms issued licences in the first batch. Reuters described the new general licences as designed to allow more exports under year-long permits for individual customers. re072, Reuters, EXCLUSIVE: China issues first batch of streamlined rare earth export licences, source says
The European Commission's RESourceEU Action Plan, dated Brussels, 3.12.2025, says the EU is "excessively dependent on imports" of most critical raw materials, notes the 9 October 2025 restrictions with extraterritorial controls, and says producing permanent magnets in the EU can be three times more expensive than elsewhere. Its immediate focus is rare earth permanent magnets, battery raw materials and defence materials. Less than 1% of rare earth elements are recycled in the EU, it says, and by Q2 2026 the Commission would propose restrictions on the export from the EU of scraps and waste of permanent magnets. The Innovation Fund 2025 call would dedicate EUR 1 billion to clean tech manufacturing, with a strong emphasis on strengthening critical raw materials value chains for clean tech applications such as rare earths permanent magnets. re138, European Commission, RESourceEU Action Plan
The plan says the Commission is adopting RESourceEU to apply to critical raw materials a logic of derisking and diversification similar to the one behind REPowerEU, which reshaped the EU energy landscape including the phase-out of Russian gas imports. It recalls that the 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act sets objectives for 2030: the EU should have the capacity to extract 10%, process 40% and recycle 25% of the strategic raw materials it consumes. In parallel, the EU should diversify its supply so that it does not depend on a single country for more than 65% of its demand. The plan says China has established a dominance of global production capacity at all value chain stages, from extraction to metal making or magnet manufacturing. It adds that over the past three years China has adopted a series of export control measures, covering critical raw materials such as graphite, gallium, tungsten, bismuth, germanium and rare earths, but also final products like batteries, or equipment related to processing rare earths elements. EU industrial players remain affected by other measures still in effect, which cause administrative blockages and shipping delays, the plan says. European car and machinery producers, and medical devices manufacturers, are rushing to secure their supply of rare earth permanent magnets, and with few alternatives on the market they are often left waiting, without visibility on the timing of approval of the licenses, and are required to provide sensitive business information. The plan says this risks leading to production shutdowns and eventually to plants' closure and lay-offs. It attributes the higher EU production cost to a variety of reasons, ranging from energy prices to stricter regulatory environments, and says outright market manipulation by incumbents creates price instability and weakens the business case of European projects, which deters European downstream industries from committing to long-term purchase agreements with EU suppliers. re138, European Commission, RESourceEU Action Plan
For that purpose, the plan provides measures to accelerate the roll-out of critical raw materials projects that can become operational in 2029 and before. Learning from the experience of Japan's Organization for Metals and Energy Security, JOGMEC, the Commission says it will establish in 2026 a European Critical Raw Materials Centre with the mandate to help secure access to these materials for European industry. The Centre would have the mandate to undertake joint purchasing operations and matchmake demand and supply, and would prioritise the purchase of critical raw materials relevant for strategic sectors such as aerospace and defence. The plan says the Centre will start its operations in 2026, and that the Commission will propose legislative instruments by Q2 2026 to equip it with the necessary tools in a second stage. The Commission says it has already approved 60 Strategic Projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act, including 13 in third countries. Among those projects and others, the plan says, some have the capacity to be deployed in the very short term to help the EU reduce its dependencies on a single country of origin by 30 to 50% by 2029 at the latest for battery, rare earth or defence related raw materials value chains. To achieve the necessary production capacity, the plan says, those projects must mobilise around EUR 2.15 billion to meet their estimated financial needs for both capital and operational expenditures. The Innovation Fund's 2024 call awarded five critical raw materials projects EUR 376 million, the plan notes. The Just Transition Fund has provided EUR 18.7 million in funding to Neo Performance's rare earths magnet project in Estonia, and the European Investment Bank is committed to provide up to EUR 2 billion of financing per year for related projects, via loans, venture debt and private funds. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, with the support of the Commission, launched a facility to mobilise EUR 100 million to invest equity into exploration projects. The Commission will set up a financing hub to coordinate strategically funding support, provide technical assistance to project promoters and national administrations and accelerate projects development. It expects to mobilise around EUR 2 billion in additional critical raw materials related investments in the 2026-2027 period. In 2026, the plan says, the Commission will launch a new approach to project financing that focuses on increasing the long-term viability of projects by incentivising and securing their offtake in the EU. In 2026, at least EUR 700 million will be made available from the Innovation Fund in the call dedicated to clean tech manufacturing and critical raw materials supply chains. re138, European Commission, RESourceEU Action Plan
On December 4, 2025, a reporter asked the commerce ministry how many companies had received rare-earth export licences since late October. Its answer gave no number: "all compliant export applications for civilian purposes have been promptly approved by the Chinese government." re070, MOFCOM, Spokesperson answer on rare earth export approvals, December 4, 2025
On December 11, 2025, Reuters reported that Vietnam's parliament had approved a revised law that restricts exports of refined rare earths and reaffirms a ban on ore exports. The law says that "deep processing of rare earths must be associated with building a modern industrial ecosystem to improve the domestic value chain and ensure autonomy," which indirectly restricts exports of refined material. Vietnam has banned rare earth ore exports since at least 2021. Reuters said Vietnam's restrictions would have no immediate impact as the country has virtually no refining capacity. The same Reuters story says the US Geological Survey earlier in 2025 significantly lowered its estimate of Vietnam's reserves to 3.5 million metric tonnes from 22 million tonnes. re092, Reuters, Vietnam curbs exports of refined rare earths, reaffirms ban on ore trade
On December 18, 2025, asked whether the EU was right that China had begun issuing longer-term licences to European companies, the ministry said that "a number of general license applications submitted by Chinese exporters have already been received and approved," and some exporters had "preliminarily met the basic requirements for applying for general licenses." re071, MOFCOM, Spokesperson answer on longer-term rare earth licences, December 18, 2025
Reuters reported that Apple signed a $500 million deal with MP Materials, and the companies did not disclose the length of the deal nor the volumes of magnets to be provided. The Commerce letter says in its own text that it is a "non-binding preliminary letter of intent." re099, Reuters, Apple in $500 million rare earth magnet deal with MP to expand US supply chain re098, NIST, Department of Commerce Announces CHIPS Incentives Letter of Intent with Vulcan Elements to
In the Apple deal, Reuters reported that Apple would prepay MP $200 million for a supply of magnets, and the companies did not disclose the length of the deal nor the volumes. Reuters said the Apple prepayment was for a supply of magnets slated to begin in 2027. re099, Reuters, Apple in $500 million rare earth magnet deal with MP to expand US supply chain
On January 6, 2026, Reuters reported that China had banned exports of dual-use items to Japan that can be used for military purposes, in reaction to an early November remark by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about Taiwan. On January 8, 2026, Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong said "Civilian users will not be affected," Reuters reported. re095, Reuters, China bans dual-use goods exports for Japan military over Taiwan remarks re096, Reuters, China says ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan to only hit military companies
On January 26, 2026, the Commerce Department's CHIPS office announced a non-binding letter of intent with USA Rare Earth: up to $277 million in direct funding and up to $1.3 billion in a senior secured loan. The projects are a mine at Round Top, Texas, which would extract 40,000 metric tons per day of feedstock and is expected to begin commercial production in 2028, and a magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, that would increase production capacity to 10,000 TPA. Estimated capital cost for the two: $3.3 billion. The release said USAR will be the only company in the U.S. that will mine rare earth-containing critical minerals, extract rare earth oxides, convert them to rare earth metals, and strip-cast these metals as feedstock for NdFeB permanent magnets. re089, NIST, The Department of Commerce's CHIPS Program Announces a Letter of Intent with USA Rare Earth to
EXIM said Chairman John Jovanovic joined President Trump in the Oval Office on February 2nd to announce Project Vault, a supply chain security initiative establishing the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. Earlier that day, the EXIM Board of Directors approved a Direct Loan of up to $10 billion to Project Vault. Initial indications of participation from original equipment manufacturers named in the EXIM release included Clarios, GE Vernova, Western Digital and Boeing, and the suppliers servicing Project Vault include Hartree Partners, Mercuria Americas, and Traxys. EXIM chairman John Jovanovic said it was designed "to support domestic manufacturers from supply shocks." re090, EXIM, EXIM Approves Project Vault Loan to Launch America's Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve and
Reuters described Project Vault on February 2, 2026 as a $12 billion initiative, with a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private funding to acquire and stockpile minerals for automakers, technology companies and other manufacturers. Reuters quoted Trump at the Oval Office event: "For years, American businesses have risked running out of critical minerals during market disruptions." He added: "Today, we're launching what will be known as Project Vault to ensure that American businesses and workers are never harmed by any shortage." re134, Reuters, Trump launches $12 billion minerals stockpile to counter China
The Japanese test vessel Chikyu left on January 12 for Minamitori Island, about 1,900 km southeast of Tokyo, arrived on January 17, began recovery operations on January 30, and confirmed the first successful retrieval of rare-earth mud on February 1. Japan's government announced on February 2 that it had retrieved rare-earth-rich seabed mud from depths of around 6 km during a test mission. re137, Reuters, Japan retrieves rare earth mud from deep seabed in test mission
On February 2, 2026, the research firm BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, raised its 2026 average forecast for NdPr oxide to $90,000 a tonne. It noted that NdPr oxide prices had reached a multi-year high of $97,969 a tonne on January 15, following announcements from Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel of an increase in the rare earth concentrate transaction price for the first quarter, and touched $99,935 a tonne on January 27. The report also named renewed claims by Trump over Greenland, China's export restrictions on rare earths to Japan, and Vietnam's ban on unprocessed rare earth ore exports effective January 1. BMI cautioned that "current market dynamics, in our view, are not yet sufficient to sustain the ongoing rally solely fuelled by supply-demand factors, with prevailing sentiment continuing to shape the bullish narrative." re118, Mining Weekly, NdPr oxide price forecast to rise to $90 000/t this year - report
Union Budget 2026-27 announces Dedicated Rare Earth Corridors in Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu for mining, processing, research and manufacturing of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets. PIB's February 3 explainer gives Rs 6,450 crore in sales-linked incentives over five years and Rs 750 crore in capital subsidy for the magnet scheme. It records that the Geological Survey of India has identified 482.6 million tonnes of rare-earth ore resources. re106, PIB, India's rare earth strategy: manufacturing, corridors and global integration, February 2026
The PIB explainer says India holds 13.15 million tonnes of monazite, containing an estimated 7.23 million tonnes of rare-earth oxides. It says these deposits occur across Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, primarily in coastal beach sands, teri/red sands and inland alluvium. In Gujarat and Rajasthan, 1.29 million tonnes of in-situ rare-earth oxide resources have been identified in hard-rock areas, and the Geological Survey of India has identified 482.6 million tonnes of rare-earth ore resources in 34 exploration projects. The explainer says that although India has a strong resource base, domestic production of permanent magnets is still at a developing stage, with imports mainly from China meeting most of the demand, nearly 60 to 80% by value and 85 to 90% by quantity between 2022 and 2025. It says consumption of rare earth permanent magnets is expected to double by 2030 due to rapid growth in electric mobility, renewable energy, electronics and defence applications. The November 2025 scheme provides 6,000 MTPA of integrated manufacturing capacity of sintered permanent magnets, distributed among up to five beneficiaries through global competitive bidding. It allows a two-year gestation for setup, followed by five years of incentive disbursement linked to production. The corridors directly complement the existing presence of IREL (India) Limited in Odisha and Kerala, which the explainer says has been operating under the Department of Atomic Energy since 1963. IREL runs a Rare Earth Extraction Plant in Odisha and a Rare Earth Refining Unit at Aluva in Kerala, both of which the explainer says align with the corridor initiative. The explainer says the new measures complement reforms under the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, amended in 2023, which introduced a dedicated list of critical minerals and opened exploration and mining to private participation, and align with the National Critical Minerals Mission, approved in January 2025. It adds that the Ministry of Mines has entered into agreements with mineral-rich countries such as Australia, Argentina, Zambia, Mozambique, Peru, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Côte D'Ivoire. re106, PIB, India's rare earth strategy: manufacturing, corridors and global integration, February 2026
On February 4, 2026, Reuters reported that U.S. Vice President JD Vance unveiled plans to marshal allies into a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals, and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said 55 countries attended the talks in Washington. Vance said: "We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production, ... and for members of the preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity." Reuters reported that shares of mineral companies plunged on news of the trade bloc. Rubio said the minerals are "heavily concentrated in the hands of one country," without referencing China, adding that the situation had become a "tool of leverage in geopolitics." Reuters also noted that Project Vault was backed by $10 billion in seed funding from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and $2 billion in private funding. re091, Reuters, US proposes critical minerals trade bloc aimed at countering China
On February 5, 2026, Reuters reported that the U.S. government had agreed a financing deal worth $565 million with Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde, which includes the option to take a minority equity stake. Chief executive Thras Moraitis told Reuters in December that Serra Verde had slashed the contract periods of its Chinese processing deals so they would end this year, and said "We'll have off-take transactions in place in time for the end of 2026." re079, Reuters, US provides rare earths miner Serra Verde with $565 million financing, stake option
Reuters wrote in February 2026 that U.S. stakes in other critical minerals firms "have been in single-digit or low-teen percentages." Reuters called the MP Materials package of July 2025, including a 15% stake, the most high-profile U.S. deal in the rare earths sector. re079, Reuters, US provides rare earths miner Serra Verde with $565 million financing, stake option
On February 24, 2026, a Department of War news story, "Securing Rare Earth Elements a National Security Imperative, Official Says," noted that the F-35 weapon system "contains a substantial amount of rare earth permanent magnets," and that other strategies include funding advanced recycling technologies to recover rare earth from systems being retired and modernizing the national defense stockpile "to ensure it serves as an effective buffer against near-term supply chain shocks." re133, Department of War, Securing rare earth elements a national security imperative, official says
MP Materials describes Independence, in Fort Worth, Texas, as its downstream center for rare earth metal and magnetics production, in a 250,000-square-foot facility. On February 26, 2026, the company said it had selected a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, less than 10 miles from Independence, to develop "10X," its planned large-scale rare earth magnet manufacturing campus. The release put the investment at more than $1.25 billion and the jobs at more than 1,500 direct manufacturing and engineering positions. It said it anticipated breaking ground imminently, with engineering and equipment procurement well underway and commissioning set to commence in 2028. Once operational, the campus is expected to contribute to total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare earth magnets per year. re125, MP Materials, Independence facility re124, MP Materials, MP Materials Selects Northlake, Texas, as the Site of "10X," a New U.S. Rare Earth Magnet