Winning without a majority
Published 8 October 2026
The pattern of Taiwan's presidential races is easy to lose in the detail of any single campaign. The Congressional Research Service and CSIS give enough to lay it out.
On Saturday, March 18, 2000 Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party won with 39%, ahead of James Soong, an independent, on 37%, and Lien Chan of the Kuomintang on 23%. It was the first party turnover, ending 55 years of Kuomintang rule. On Saturday, March 20, 2004 Chen was re-elected with 50.1% to Lien's 49.9%, a margin of 0.2 points, a day after an alleged assassination attempt. The Kuomintang disputed the result and charged that Chen staged the shooting, an allegation reported by the CRS that is not presented here as fact. On Saturday, March 22, 2008 Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang won with 58.5% against Frank Hsieh's 41.5%. Tsai Ing-wen won both 2016 and 2020 with over 56%, in the wording of CSIS, which gives no exact figures.
Voters ratified a split verdict on January 13, 2024. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency with 40.05% of the vote, about 5.59 million votes. Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang took 33.49% and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party 26.46%. Turnout was 71.86%. The legislature went the other way. The Kuomintang won 52 seats and the People's Party 8, together 60, while Lai's party finished six short of a majority. Lai was inaugurated on May 20, 2024.
The seats broke down this way, per the legislative results published the same day: Kuomintang 52, Democratic Progressive Party 51, People's Party 8, of 113, with no majority for anyone. Of the at-large seats the two big parties took 13 each and the People's Party 8. Lai's 40% share compares with Tsai's 56% in both of her elections, and CSIS reads Beijing as seeing "breathing space" because Lai had no majority and his party lost its legislative majority. That is CSIS's interpretation, so it is attributed to it.
The new president's inaugural address on Monday, May 20, 2024 set the terms for everything that followed. He took office, he said, on the anniversary of the day in 1996 when Taiwan's first democratically elected president was sworn in. He promised the "Four Commitments," to "neither yield nor provoke, and maintain the status quo." He asked China to "face the reality of the Republic of China's existence" and to choose "dialogue over confrontation, exchange over containment". He also warned that "even if we accept the entirety of China's position and give up our sovereignty, China's ambition to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear". After quoting the Constitution's sovereignty and citizenship articles, he concluded: "The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other". Beijing heard the last sentence louder than the first two. Joint Sword-2024A began three days later.
For Beijing the result was a gift of a sort. A president it distrusts, a legislature it can work with, and a government that cannot easily pass its own budget. For Taipei the result meant that every question about defense spending would be answered by the opposition.
On Thursday, October 10, 2024, Lai said: "The Republic of China has already put down roots in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. And the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other. On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving. The People's Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan." He added: "As president, my mission is to ensure that our nation endures and progresses, and to unite the 23 million people of Taiwan. I will also uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty." And: "Regardless of what name we choose to call our nation - the Republic of China; Taiwan; or the Republic of China Taiwan - we must all share common convictions: Our determination to defend our national sovereignty remains unchanged. Our efforts to maintain the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remain unchanged." Joint Sword-2024B followed on Monday, October 14, 2024.
On Friday, October 10, 2025 he said: "Taiwan will work to uphold the status quo, ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." He also said: "We look forward to the day when China can take responsibility as a major power and cease its distortion of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 and historical World War II documents. We also hope it will renounce the use of force or coercion to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait." On spending: "At the end of this year, we will be proposing a special budget for national defense. Defense spending, as it is defined by NATO, will exceed 3 percent of GDP next year, and will reach 5 percent of GDP by 2030." He gave the special budget three goals: accelerate building the "T-Dome" layered air defense ("multi-layered defense, high-level detection, and effective interception"), integrate high-tech and AI into a "smart defense combat system," and invest in innovative defense technologies and the domestic defense industry to "avoid the red supply chain." His closing line was: "We are determined to maintain peace through strength."